hebei university of traditional chinese medicine

　　According to the information recently disclosed on the website of Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine (renamed the website of Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine), on June 6, 2023, with the approval of the Ministry of Education, Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine was renamed Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine.

　　The recently updated "School Profile" of the school website (the data deadline is June 10th, 2023) states, "Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine was founded in 1956, originally named as Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, with its location in Baoding City, Hebei Province. In 1957, it began to recruit undergraduates majoring in traditional Chinese medicine, and in 1958 it was named Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine. In 1962, it merged with Tianjin College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, which was affiliated to Hebei Province. In 1969, Tianjin College of Traditional Chinese Medicine was moved to Shijiazhuang and merged with Hebei Medical College to form Hebei New Medical University. In 1983, the independent setting was resumed and enrollment began. In 1995, it merged with Hebei Medical College and Shijiazhuang Medical College to form Hebei Medical University. In 2013, the establishment of Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine was resumed. On June 6, 2023, it was renamed Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine with the approval of the Ministry of Education. "

　　Previously, in May this year, the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Education passed the "Announcement on Approving the Establishment of Undergraduate Colleges and Universities" issued by official website, the Ministry of Education, saying that according to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Higher Education Law, the Provisional Regulations on the Establishment of Ordinary Colleges and Universities, the Provisional Regulations on the Establishment of Ordinary Undergraduate Schools, and the Standards for the Establishment of Vocational Schools at the Undergraduate Level (Trial), it is proposed to agree to establish seven schools, including Chongqing College of Chinese Medicine, after being inspected and evaluated by experts of the Eighth National College Establishment Evaluation Committee and deliberated by the party group meeting of the Ministry of Education. The publicity time is from May 22 to May 26, 2023.

　　Among the seven schools announced this time, the Ministry of Education intends to agree that Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine should be renamed Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and the declared province is Hebei Province, and the nature of running a school is public.

　　In recent years, Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Hebei Province have been actively promoting the renaming of schools.

　　In December 2021, the Education Department of Hebei Province mentioned in response to a netizen’s inquiry, "At present, under the strong leadership of the provincial party committee and the provincial government, our province is relying on Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine to build Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, providing all-round support and guidance in construction funds, talent introduction, education and teaching, and has achieved remarkable results. In the next step, we will continue to take effective measures to increase the promotion and strive to build Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine as soon as possible. "

　　Subsequently, in August 2022, the Hebei Provincial Department of Education replied to the netizen’s inquiry that "Hebei College of Traditional Chinese Medicine was renamed Hebei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine", saying, "After performing the provincial evaluation procedure, our province has submitted the application materials for renaming to the Ministry of Education. At present, related work is progressing in an orderly manner in accordance with the procedures for setting up institutions of higher learning. "

　　"Up for three years, down for three years, flat for three years,The cycle of material price change is generally ten years. Based on this cyclical feature, people in the timber industry expected at the end of 2023 that "the price of timber has been rising for three years and should fall back." However, in the first half of this year, the price of Chinese herbal medicines continued to rise after a short-term adjustment at a high level.

　　After a whole year’s inventory digestion of raw materials of traditional Chinese medicine, the gross profit margin of some listed Chinese medicine enterprises changed greatly in the first quarter of this year, and the pressure of raw material cost began to appear.

　　Manager Li, a staff member of the original purchasing department of a listed pharmaceutical company, told the Cailian reporter: "Last year, some enterprises did predict the price increase of Chinese medicine raw materials and reserved raw materials, but generally speaking, the raw materials reserved by a company are usually one year, at most two years."

　　Since the beginning of this year, the index of Kangmei Chinese herbal medicine has risen from 1810.99 points to 2248.52 points, with an increase of 24.16%. The prices of some varieties such as Atractylodes macrocephala, Cortex Moutan and Radix Paeoniae Alba have increased several times. The prices of Chinese herbal medicines continued to rise overall on the basis of last year’s high prices, while pharmaceutical companies turned to buy high-priced medicinal materials in the market after their own low-priced raw material stocks were exhausted, which may continue to push up the production costs of enterprises. The impact of this year’s price increase on listed Chinese pharmaceutical companies may be deepened.

　　The gross profit margin of some Chinese medicine pharmaceutical companies has dropped significantly.

　　As can be seen from the financial report data of Chinese medicine listed companies in the first quarter of this year, the gross profit margin of some companies showed a clear downward trend.

List of some enterprises whose gross profit margin decreased year-on-year in the first quarter

　　The gross profit margin of the above-mentioned companies in Q1 2024 decreased by an average of 7.65pct compared with the same period of last year, and the gross profit margin of many listed companies decreased by more than 10pct.

　　In this regard, Cailian reporters called some listed companies as investors, and some listed companies said that the rising price of Chinese herbal medicines caused cost pressure on the company’s products.(300519.SZ) A company official said: "The price of Chinese herbal medicines doubled from last year to this year."

The price index of Chinese herbal medicines reached a new high this year.

　　(002603.SZ) said at the performance briefing that Chinese herbal medicines haveAttribute, there is a certain periodicity. Among the Chinese herbal medicines used in the company’s exclusive products, the prices of some Chinese herbal medicines rose significantly compared with last year, which affected the gross profit margin of some products to some extent. The company will take measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency to maintain relatively stable gross profit margin. In addition, the company will further strengthen the construction of Chinese herbal medicine breeding bases, which can not only guarantee the quality of Chinese herbal medicines from the source, but also alleviate the price pressure of some Chinese herbal medicines to some extent.

　　The reporter of Cailian found that the prices of raw materials for the main products of several listed companies with obvious decline in gross profit margin have indeed risen sharply. such as(002728.SZ), the price of raw materials for washing Aster rose from 45 yuan/kg at the end of 2022 to 90 yuan/kg at present, while that of Radix Platycodi rose from 37 yuan/kg to 43 yuan/kg, that of Radix Peucedani rose from 45 yuan/kg to 85 yuan/kg, and that of Radix Glycyrrhizae rose from 22 yuan/kg to 31 yuan/kg. Only Fructus Aurantii decreased slightly from 23 yuan/kg.

　　However, it should also be noted that not all companies’ gross profit margin decreases are caused by changes in the cost of medicinal materials, and changes in the company’s product structure and the results of medical insurance negotiations will have a greater impact on the company’s gross profit margin.

　　However, for most Chinese medicine pharmaceutical companies, the overall price of Chinese medicine is still on the rise this year, and the gross profit margin of enterprises is affected by the change of raw material cost or more obvious than last year. This year, the prices of some commonly used Chinese herbal medicines, such as Atractylodes macrocephala, Radix Paeoniae Alba and Radix Aucklandiae, have risen sharply, and the market sentiment continues to rise. However, the prices of Chinese herbal medicines, such as Angelica sinensis, Codonopsis pilosula and Glycyrrhiza uralensis, which fell back in the second half of last year due to excessive increase, also showed signs of stabilization.

　　After investigating and interviewing the distribution market of Chinese herbal medicines and some listed companies, the reporter of Cailian found that for enterprises with Chinese herbal medicine planting bases, the stability of product supply can be basically guaranteed when the price of Chinese herbal medicines rises, but because most of the medicinal materials in most enterprises are mainly planted in a cooperative way, the purchase price of raw materials is purchased at a protective price that goes with the market, which will not greatly benefit when the price of the medicinal materials rises.

　　Manager Li told Cailian reporter: "The raw material reserves of most large Chinese medicine pharmaceutical companies generally analyze the price when purchasing medicinal materials. If the current price of a medicinal material is significantly higher than normal, enterprises generally will not make a large number of purchases, but will only use it as needed."

　　If the current pharmaceutical companies start to use the purchasing strategy of low-inventory raw materials, under normal circumstances, the price of high-priced raw materials will slowly decrease due to weak demand, but if the price of this raw material continues to rise, pharmaceutical companies can only passively purchase.

　　Enterprises raise prices? Break the contract? Or involution?

　　Faced with the rising prices of Chinese herbal medicines, various companies have made different countermeasures for different products and markets.

　　Some listed companies have chosen to raise prices, the earliest is(600436.SH) issued the Announcement on Price Adjustment of Leading Products in May 2023, and the company indicated that the retail price of Pien Tze Huang tablets, the leading product, in the domestic market will be raised from 590 yuan to 760 yuan from May 6, 2023, with an increase rate of 28.8%.

　　For this price increase, the company said that it was mainly due to the rising cost of raw materials. The reporter of Cailian learned from the staff of Bozhou Drug Merchants Network that the price of bezoar, the main raw material needed by Pien Tze Huang, has increased significantly in the past two years. The price of natural bezoar per kilogram has risen from 500,000 yuan to a maximum of 1.8 million yuan, and now it has dropped slightly to around 1.5 million yuan.

　　However, Pien Tze Huang did not raise the price of Angong Niuhuang Pill, another product with bezoar as the main raw material. Earlier, a staff member of another Angong Niuhuang Pill manufacturer told the Cailian reporter that although the price of bezoar has increased greatly, the company’s price increase needs to take into account the situation of competitors of the same product. If the price increase is rushed, it may affect the product sales.

　　Except Pien Tze Huang,(002644.SZ) also announced in March this year that it will adjust the ex-factory price of its main proprietary Chinese medicine products due to rising raw materials and production costs, with an average price increase of 9%. Judging from the company’s first quarterly report, the gross profit margin of sales was 31.1%, which was indeed higher than that of 26.66% in the same period of last year. However, since the company raised the price in March, the boosting effect of the price increase on the gross profit margin has not yet fully appeared in the first quarterly report.

List of some enterprises whose gross profit margin increased year-on-year in the first quarter

　　From the product structure of the company, its main products include compound Huangqi Jianpi oral liquid, concentrated Danggui pill, Xiaoyao pill, Angong Niuhuang pill and Liuwei Dihuang pill, most of which are OTC products.The public selling price of e-commerce platforms such as Taobao shows that the price of the company’s products is relatively low compared with similar products of other brands, and the gross profit margin is relatively low.

　　In addition, Cailian reporters learned from pharmacies and some listed companies that the prices of main products of listed companies have also been adjusted. among(600993.SH) A company official said that the price of hemorrhoid cream under the company increased slightly. There are also staff members of a medical institution in Shijiazhuang City who reported to the Cailian reporter.The price of quick-acting jiuxin pills has increased recently.

　　Under the pressure of rising prices of Chinese herbal medicines, some enterprises chose to breach the contract. Last month, Shandong Province announced two batches of "Announcement on Medical Price and Credit Evaluation Results of Illegal Enterprises in Joint Procurement of Chinese Herbal Pieces by Sanming Purchasing Alliance Inter-provincial Purchasing Alliance". Many enterprises refused to fulfill their commitments and refused to fulfill their purchase, sale or distribution contracts without justifiable reasons.（600085.SH）、The subsidiaries of (600518.SH) and Zhendong Pharmaceutical (300158.SZ) are all on the list of general dishonesty/serious dishonesty.

　　The list mainly involves varieties such as Paeonia lactiflora, earthworm, Atractylodes macrocephala, Cortex Moutan, Angelica sinensis, Codonopsis pilosula, etc., which have increased greatly in the second half of last year or this year. Taking Atractylodes macrocephala as an example, the unified price of goods in Bozhou and anguo city markets rose from the lowest 28 yuan per kilogram last year to the highest 170 yuan per kilogram this year.

　　Some insiders told Cailian reporter that because the centralized collection of Chinese herbal medicines in Shandong was not forced by the government, but made by micro-doctors, the risk of default was low. Therefore, some pharmaceutical companies chose to take the initiative to default because the cost of some drinks increased too much, if they continued to supply, they would cause serious losses.

　　In addition to price increase and default, enterprises have a slightly helpless third choice. Some people in listed companies said that the price increase may face an unfavorable situation of competition with the same products, and now they can only support it, but the company will try its best to reduce various expenses.

　　Faced with the rising prices of medicinal materials, some experts in the medicinal materials industry, such as Bozhou and Anguo, have also begun to revise their judgments on the rising cycle of Chinese medicinal materials-"There is a constant inflow of funds, and it may rise." However, some old drug dealers believe that the actual demand growth of medicinal materials is not so great. The price increase of many medicinal materials is not driven by demand, but by funds. Medicinal materials are hoarded in cold storage to form inventory, and the risk of price decline in the market is increasing.

　　CCTV News:The website of the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a marine weather bulletin at 18: 00 on the 15th. The content is as follows:

　　I. Weather conditions in offshore waters

　　From 02: 00 to 14: 00 on the 15th, there were 5-7 winds with gusts of 8-9 in Bohai Sea, Bohai Strait, northern and central Yellow Sea, northern East China Sea, Taiwan Province Strait, northern and central and western South China Sea and Beibu Gulf.

　　Second, the key weather forecast in offshore waters

　　1. There will be 6~7 winds in the southern waters of China.

　　From the night of 15th to the day of 18th, there will be northerly or northeasterly winds with gusts of 8-9 in Taiwan Province Strait, east of Taiwan Province, bashi channel, northern and central South China Sea, Beibu Gulf and Qiongzhou Strait.

　　Third, the specific forecast for the next three days

　　Iv. weather outlook for the next 4-7 days

　　During the day from October 18th to 22nd, due to the influence of cold air, there will be 5~7 northeast winds or northerly winds with gusts of 8 in the Bohai Sea, Bohai Strait, most of the Yellow Sea, most of the East China Sea, Taiwan Province Strait, bashi channel, the northern and central South China Sea, Beibu Gulf and Qiongzhou Strait, among which the winds in parts of the Taiwan Province Strait can reach 8 and the gusts are 9.

　　

The front face of the 2022 overbearing 4000 adopts a larger thick air intake grille with an exaggerated front bumper, which gives a very strong sense of oppression, and the headlights are further elongated and extended to the bottom of the air intake grille, making the front face more domineering. Toyota overbearing 4000 brand-new image cross-country rough character, creating a completely different king style.

The off-road performance, reliability and comfort of 22 overbearing 4000s are all in by going up one flight of stairs, powered by a 4.0-liter V6 engine with a maximum power of 183/5600(Kw/rpm) and equipped with a 6-speed automatic manual transmission. Non-loaded body, low-speed four-wheel drive, all-terrain tires, middle and rear differential locks, and excellent data of contact angle and departure angle, Toyota Overbearing 4000 has all the rigidity necessary for a professional off-road vehicle.

The comfort of the interior space of the 2022 Toyota Overbearing 4000 shows another image. The steering wheel is novel and stout, with control keys such as audio and telephone arranged on it, which makes it feel outstanding. The new car is equipped with a very popular holographic imaging system. With the help of these cameras, no matter how crude the driving skills are, drivers can easily and confidently cope with various environmental road conditions.

Although the 2022 brand-new Middle East Toyota Overbearing 4000 adopts the design of 7 seats, it still has spacious rear space, and the electronic equipment in the car has also increased a lot, which meets the all-round needs of drivers and passengers, and the elegant new body. In addition, a big change is that the third row of seats adopts the bottom storage design, which can fold the seats into a flat storage platform, and the trunk with larger space can both store things and carry people.

Configuration: 2022 Toyota overbearing 4000 GXR configuration: sunroof, 265/55 R19 aluminum wheels, 150-liter fuel tank, rear-mounted spare tire with shell, body color electric rearview mirror, tail wing, integrated luggage rack, LED front fog lights, front and rear electric eyes Internal features: three-zone automatic air conditioning, center console, refrigerator, leather steering wheel, fabric seat, 9-inch navigation screen, 6 stereo, multifunction. Manual headlight adjustment, smart card, keyless entry safety features: 7 airbags, active traction system, reversing image, cruise control, ramp assist, Towson differential lock.

22 Middle East versions of Toyota Overbearing 4000 have simple and atmospheric design, perfect seat layout with three rows and seven seats, high utilization rate and excellent legroom performance. The four multi-function steering wheels with larger size are comfortable to use, more convenient to control and safer to drive. Although it adopts the setting of seven seats, it still has quite spacious usable space, and the electronic equipment in the car has also increased a lot to meet the all-round needs of drivers and passengers.

　Displacement (l): 3, 956. Maximum speed (km/h): 180, fuel consumption (L/100 km): 15L Engine: 6-cylinder V-type overhead double camshaft with 24 valves (connected with VVT-i intelligent timing variable valve control system), maximum power: 179(243 HP) /5200 Kw/rpm, and maximum torque: 376/. Fuel tank capacity: 87L Emission standard: driving mode: four-wheel drive, steering mode: power steering, suspension mode: front double fork independent suspension, rear four-bar linkage suspension, tires: 265/70R16, minimum steering radius: 5.7m..

　The off-road performance, reliability and comfort of 22 Toyota Overbearing 4000 are all in by going up one flight of stairs, powered by a 4.0-liter V6 engine with a maximum power of 183/5600(Kw/rpm) and equipped with a 6-speed automatic manual transmission. Non-loaded body, low-speed four-wheel drive, all-terrain tires, middle and rear differential locks, and excellent data of contact angle and departure angle, Toyota Overbearing 4000 has all the rigidity necessary for a professional off-road vehicle.

The rear space of 22 Middle East Toyota Overbearing 4000 is also remarkable. In order to make the capacity of the trunk change with the use, the Overbearing 4000 is equipped with a hidden third row of seats, which facilitates the space arrangement in the car to the maximum extent. Overbearing 4000 not only has amazing off-road performance, but also has excellent road driving performance and comfortable performance of high-end cars.

　　In view of the pronunciation of the place name Lu ‘an, Anhui Province, which caused controversy recently, the Division of Geographical Names of the Ministry of Civil Affairs gave an authoritative statement.

　　On May 15th, a netizen left a message on the portal of the Ministry of Civil Affairs asking about the pronunciation of the word "six" in Lu ‘an City, Anhui Province: "According to the phonetic notation of Lu ‘an City in the Administrative Division of the People’s Republic of China 2015, ‘ Luan Shi’ According to the latest edition of the administrative divisions of the People’s Republic of China, Lu ‘an City, Anhui Province ‘ Six ’ Has there been any change in the speech? Are you still studying for six (Lu) Ann? "

　　In this regard, on May 19, the Division of Geographical Names of the Ministry of Civil Affairs replied that in the "Administrative Division of the People’s Republic of China 2020", the pinyin of Lu’ an was "Lu’ an Shi”。

　　Located in the west of Anhui Province, Lu ‘an, commonly known as "West Anhui", is a regional central city in Dabie Mountain, a sub-central city in Hefei Economic Circle, a connecting city in Wanjiang City, an industrial transfer and radiation city in Yangtze River Delta, and a national land transportation hub city.

　　Recently, Lu ‘an City has attracted social attention due to the local COVID-19 epidemic, while its pronunciation has also caused controversy. In recent news programs broadcast by CCTV News Channel, many anchors read Lu ‘an as "Li Φ ā n", while in news programs of anhui tv and Lu ‘an Radio and Television Station, anchors still read Lu ‘an as "Li Φ ā n".

　　According to data released by Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs on the 19th, in 2019, Guangdong’s foreign trade import and export was 7.14 trillion yuan, which remained stable at the 7 trillion yuan mark after hitting a record high in 2018, ranking first in the country for 34 consecutive years.

　　More important than the total amount, the high-quality development trend of foreign trade is obvious:

　　—— Since private enterprises became the largest subject of foreign trade for the first time in 2017, import and export accounted for more than half of the province’s total for the first time in 2019, with strong vitality and resilience.

　　-Cross-border e-commerce grew by 45.8%, ranking first in the country, accounting for nearly 60% of the country’s total, of which export value accounted for nearly 80% of the country’s total, and new kinetic energy accelerated.

　　-The proportion of general trade increased to 49%, the export of integrated circuits increased by 51%, the scale of market procurement and export was the second in China, and the quality of trade continued to improve.

　　—— The European Union replaced the United States as Guangdong’s third largest trading partner, and its import and export of the Belt and Road increased by 6.3%, making the international market increasingly diversified; Imported consumer goods increased by 19.9%, imported medicines increased by 30.6%, and the domestic market demand was strong.

　　—— The import and export of Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone was 341.08 billion yuan, an increase of 27.8%. The dividends of various reforms in cross-border trade gradually emerged, and the role of "experimental field" was further enhanced.

　　The change of subject

　　The import and export of private enterprises increased by 5.6%

　　"The balance car we produce takes the middle and high-end route and has been growing continuously in the last three years." Lin Yang, assistant to the general manager of Shenzhen Troika Technology Industry Co., Ltd., said that the company’s annual export value is about 400 million yuan. After the newly developed foldable riding balance car this year, it is estimated that it can export tens of thousands of vehicles, each of which costs more than 200 US dollars.

　　Private enterprises are more dynamic, and the share of foreign trade is over half for the first time. According to the data of Guangdong Branch of Customs, in 2019, there were 69,900 private enterprises with import and export performance in Guangdong, an increase of 7,000 compared with 2018; The import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, up 5.6%, and its proportion in the total foreign trade value increased by 2.9 percentage points to 51.8% compared with the previous year, accounting for more than half of the total for the first time.

　　In addition, the import and export value of Guangdong state-owned enterprises was 418.99 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%.

　　Driven by private enterprises, Guangdong’s foreign trade scale, after hitting a record high of 7.16 trillion yuan in 2018, continued to stabilize at the 7 trillion yuan mark in 2019, ranking first in the country for 34 consecutive years. This scale is 2.8 trillion yuan, 3.7 trillion yuan, 4.1 trillion yuan and 4.3 trillion yuan ahead of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing and other major foreign trade provinces in China.

　　Among them, Guangdong’s total annual export value was 4.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6%; The total import value was 2.8 trillion yuan, down 2.9%.

　　Change of kinetic energy

　　The total value of cross-border e-commerce ranks first in the country.

　　In 2019, Guangdong imported and exported 110.79 billion yuan through the cross-border e-commerce management platform, with a growth rate of 45.8%, ranking first in the country, accounting for nearly 60% of the country’s total. Among them, the total value of cross-border e-commerce exports accounts for nearly 80% of the country.

　　Take the most typical city of Guangzhou as an example. According to the statistics of Guangzhou Customs, in 2019, the total import and export value of cross-border e-commerce in Guangzhou was 38.59 billion yuan, ranking second among cities in China, with an increase of 56.4%. Among them, the total import value was 25.32 billion yuan, an increase of 27.9%; Exports reached 13.27 billion yuan, up by 171.7%.

　　At present, Guangzhou is gradually moving from a cross-border e-commerce industrial cluster to a hub base. The whole modes of online shopping bonded import, direct purchase import, general export and special supervision area export have all landed, and the channels of "air, sea, land and mail" have been fully launched.

　　According to the "New Thinking and New Trends" Guangzhou Cross-border E-commerce New Business Summit held recently, the total import value of cross-border e-commerce in Guangzhou ranked first among cities in China for six consecutive years. At present, Guangzhou not only gathers well-known e-commerce enterprises such as Vipshop, Suning.cn South China Center, but also e-commerce giants such as Ali and JD.COM.

　　The Guangzhou Municipal Department of Commerce revealed at the summit that in 2019, the city launched a number of cross-border e-commerce innovation "playing methods", such as taking the lead in launching a global commodity traceability system for cross-border e-commerce, taking the lead in switching the national cross-border e-commerce import and export unified version system, and taking the lead in opening the "micro-police authentication" consumer identity information verification function, forming a cross-border e-commerce Guangzhou model.

　　The summit, hosted by Guangzhou Cross-border E-commerce Industry Association, is an important activity of the 2020 Guangzhou Social Organization Exchange Conference. At present, Guangzhou Cross-border E-commerce Industry Association has more than 300 member enterprises, including vipshop, JD.COM, Tmall, Suning.cn and other industry leaders, as well as representative enterprises of onion group, E-Ticket Union and Export Easy. Lin Songquan, president of the association and chairman of Tiansheng Group, said that in 2020, the association will join hands with more than 300 enterprises to strengthen their internal quality and external image, and implement the construction of party organizations. At the same time, we will develop new business models, tap the common needs of the industry, build stronger brands for associations and members, and strengthen and promote exchanges. Let’s work together to help Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area enterprises cooperate and enter the "Belt and Road" for development.

　　What is even more exciting is that at the end of 2019, Shantou and Foshan were approved to set up cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, and the number of cities in Guangdong that set up cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones increased to six. On January 18th this year, Shantou and Foshan were selected as pilot cities for cross-border e-commerce retail import. More "wide goods" go online and "go out to sea", and the new kinetic energy of foreign trade will further generate.

　　Changes in quality

　　The proportion of general trade increased to 49%

　　What do you think of the high-quality development of Guangdong trade?

　　-accelerating the optimization of foreign trade structure. In 2019, Guangdong’s general trade import and export was 3.5 trillion yuan, up 4.1%, accounting for 49% of the total foreign trade value, up 2 percentage points from 2018. At the same time, bonded logistics was 1.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.6%.

　　-export products have higher technical content and added value. The export of mechanical and electrical products in Guangdong increased by 0.7%, accounting for 68% of foreign trade exports. Among them, integrated circuits increased by 51%, medical instruments and instruments increased by 16.3%, metal processing machine tools increased by 12.4%, and the export of semiconductor devices increased by 8.5%. In addition, Guangdong exported 1,699 used cars, ranking first in the country.

　　-The regional trade pattern is more coordinated. The import and export of 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta reached 6.8 trillion yuan, which remained basically stable. The total import and export of eastern Guangdong, western Guangdong and northern Guangdong was 320.22 billion yuan, up by 2.1%, 14.3% and 4.6% respectively, both higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade in the province.

　　The accelerated development of new formats is also a microcosm of the improvement of Guangdong’s foreign trade quality.

　　In Foshan, market procurement trade has effectively solved the "pain point" of foreign trade SMEs. "In the past, the’ single small miscellaneous goods’ goods purchased in the professional market could not be declared for export in accordance with general trade compliance, but after becoming a market procurement pilot, small and medium-sized merchants can now participate in foreign trade business." He Tianwen, general manager of Guangdong Shunde Native Products Import and Export Co., Ltd. said.

　　According to the statistics of Guangzhou Customs, in 2019, in the first year of the pilot operation of Foshan Shunde market procurement trade mode, there were 214 participating enterprises, 2,152 merchants were registered, 3.546 million tons of goods were exported, and the trade volume was 78.5 billion yuan.

　　Market procurement pilot has become one of the new growth points of Guangdong’s foreign trade export. In 2019, the province’s market procurement and export reached 239.34 billion yuan, ranking second in the country.

　　Market changes

　　The European Union replaced the United States as the third largest trading partner.

　　"Since 2019, our company’s wooden door exports to the EU have maintained a good growth trend. The main exporting countries are Ireland and the United Kingdom, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%." Wang Song, manager of Zhanjiang Senle Wood Industry Co., Ltd. said that it is expected that the export value to the EU will continue to grow this year.

　　In 2019, the European Union replaced the United States as Guangdong’s third largest trading partner, and the province’s import and export to the EU was 888.36 billion yuan, an increase of 11.1%.

　　In the view of Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center, the sorting translocation shows that Guangdong’s economic resilience is increasing, and "enterprises have made psychological and practical preparations for implementing market diversification".

　　Over the past year, Guangdong has actively responded to challenges, and the international market structure is quietly changing. Hong Kong, China and ASEAN continue to be Guangdong’s first and second largest trading partners, with the total import and export value of our province being 1.1 trillion yuan and 1.02 trillion yuan respectively, of which the import and export to ASEAN increased by 6.9%. In addition, the import and export of countries along the "Belt and Road" was 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3%, and the number of trains shipped by China and Europe increased by 48.7%; Imports and exports to Latin America increased by 8.8%, and emerging markets flourished.

　　Li Kaiyi, director of the Research and Statistics Office of Guangdong Branch of Customs, analyzed that the development of emerging markets has been continuously strengthened, which has dispersed the risk of single market fluctuation and effectively hedged the impact of trade friction.

　　Over the past year, Guangdong has accelerated the tapping of domestic demand, and the domestic market has ushered in a "small outbreak". In 2019, Guangdong imported 219.62 billion yuan of consumer goods, an increase of 19.9%; Among them, fruits, cosmetics and aquatic products increased by 32.8%, 36.5% and 46.1%. In addition, imported medicines totaled 23.78 billion yuan, an increase of 30.6%.

　　Engine change

　　The import and export of Guangdong Free Trade Zone increased by 27.8%

　　At present, Shenzhen Customs has promoted the construction of "International Shipping Transfer, Distribution and Assembling Center", which distributes, assembles and transshippes imported goods, transit goods and export goods in the supervised warehouse of Qianwan Bonded Port Area, and builds the MCC Qianhai model.

　　Zhu Ye, deputy general manager of China Merchants Bonded Logistics Co., Ltd. believes that this has greatly enhanced the comprehensive service capacity of Shekou Port Area, which not only attracts the incremental supply of goods in ASEAN and other regions, but also saves the logistics cost of maritime transshipment and export for enterprises.

　　In the past year, Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone and ports made new progress in reform and innovation, and the degree of cross-border trade facilitation was significantly improved. According to the data of the Provincial Department of Commerce, in the first November of 2019, the overall customs clearance time for import and export in our province was 18.79 hours and 2.71 hours, which were 56.26% and 77.11% lower than that in 2017, respectively.

　　From the perspective of the whole year of 2019, the leading role of the Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone continues to increase. According to the data of Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, the total import and export of the three free trade zones was 341.08 billion yuan, an increase of 27.8%.

　　"In the next five years, I am more optimistic that Guangdong will take the lead in achieving high-quality trade development results, and the free trade zone is an important breakthrough." In Wei Jianguo’s view, Guangdong has the most complete manufacturing system and industrial chain in the whole country and even the whole world, which is an unrepeatable advantage formed by history, and Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone can easily realize the deep integration of "high-end manufacturing+modern services".

Time flies, and in the first quarter of 2025, it quietly came to an end.

This week, we will make a resumption of offline retail consumption in 2025Q1. Among the reference objects involved, the year-on-year object is 2024Q1, and the month-on-month object is 2024Q4.

The data of the re-launch are all based on CT of the instant win brand.The offline retail monitoring network of instant win brand CT covers cities at or above the county level (excluding townships, towns and villages), and deeply covers the core urban agglomerations of the country, including hypermarkets, supermarkets, small supermarkets, convenience stores and grocery stores. Win immediately through AI and big data technology to automatically clean the real-time full POS data of the transaction orders of sample stores. At present, there are more than 300,000 brands monitored in the instant win brand CT, with more than 14 million bar codes and more than 5 billion orders per year.

In order to ensure the consistency of the data sample range in each quarter, the data sources of the stores used this time are all continuous stores, that is, these stores were active in the offline retail monitoring network before April 2025. The sample sizes of stores in 2024Q1, 2024Q4 and 2025Q1 are the same.

For the quarterly offline retail express in 2024, please click:

Data Launch: 2024Q4 Offline Retail Express/Data Launch: 2024Q3 Offline Retail Express/Data Launch: 2024Q2 Offline Retail Express/Data Launch: 2024Q1 Offline Retail Express

1, the overall situation of the quarter

We selected four categories: food, beverage, wine and daily chemical, and observed the overall year-on-year situation of the quarter based on the continuous store samples.

First of all, the situation in this quarter, in terms of sales, the number of orders and the average cost of orders, 2025Q1 compared with 2024Q1, all indicators have declined to varying degrees. An obvious change is that sales decreased by 10.44% year-on-year, but the number of orders decreased by only 5.35% year-on-year, which means that the average amount of each order decreased significantly year-on-year, and consumers’ shopping budget for a single order still showed an obvious shrinking trend.

Another noteworthy point is that the annual Q1 usually includes the Spring Festival, which is also the most important festival consumption node in a year.

From the subjective point of view, festival consumption is usually affected by emotion and scene more than the so-called "just need" in weekdays, which may also indicate that consumers’ income expectations and optimism for the future are still being repaired in Q1 this year.

From an objective point of view, the rise of emerging formats such as snack discount and discount supermarkets, as well as the continuous increase of online penetration rate, have also produced a certain degree of "diversion" for the consumption of traditional retail formats, and this change may also continue.

From the ring comparison, compared with 2024Q4, it is also influenced by the Spring Festival, and the sales volume and the number of sales pieces have increased obviously, but the number of orders has not increased obviously, or it means that the above-mentioned problems of consumers’ expectations and shopping willingness, as well as the objective business diversion, have also caused a certain degree of impact.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, price is also one of the important factors that affect the change of sales.

Based on the price trends of food, beverage and wine in the instant win price index, we can also see the pressure of price changes on sales growth. In the immediate win price index, 100 is the price index baseline. A price index above 100 means that the overall price level of the category is higher than that of the same period last year, while a price index below 100 means that the overall price level of the category is lower than that of last year.

It can be seen that in January-March of 2025, except for drinks and wine, which were temporarily higher than 100 in February (or because the Spring Festival was misaligned with the Spring Festival in 2024), the price indexes of food, drinks and wine were all lower than 100 in the other months of 202404-202503, which means that the overall price levels of the two categories are in a continuous downward channel, and the food category is compared with the drinks and wine category.

Generally speaking, the main factors that promote the growth of consumer goods from the supply side are nothing more than "selling more" and "selling more expensive". Based on the overall monitoring of the five major retail formats by Win Now, the dispersion of formats and the outflow of demand from formats certainly constitute objective reasons, but in terms of sales scale and sales price, several categories as a whole are also facing greater pressure.

(1) Key categories

In order to further observe the situation, we selected some categories of packaged goods with large sales scale in offline retail channels from the above categories, and observed the changes in the share and importance of the categories through the year-on-year changes in the share of these categories in the corresponding categories. In terms of category selection, because this quarter includes the Spring Festival, it is slightly adjusted compared with 2024Q4.

Food category:

Dairy products: pure milk, yogurt, adult milk powder.

Leisure snacks: nuts, roasted seeds and nuts, chocolate, puffed food, biscuits, dried meat, candies and western-style cakes.

Instant food: instant noodles, instant vermicelli, instant sausage and self-heating food.

Quick-frozen food: quick-frozen glutinous rice balls, quick-frozen jiaozi, quick-frozen steamed stuffed buns and quick-frozen snacks.

Beverage category:

Milk-containing drinks, packaged water, vegetable protein drinks, soft drinks, instant fruit juice, sports drinks, instant tea, vegetable drinks, instant coffee and instant milk tea;

(2) Year-on-year comparison of 2)2025Q1/2024Q1-food category

Judging from the year-on-year changes in the market share of food categories, the categories with positive year-on-year growth in market share include quick-frozen snacks and quick-frozen dumplings in the category of quick-frozen foods, instant noodles in the category of convenience foods, and adult milk powder, yogurt and pure milk in the category of long-lost dairy products; The market share increased negatively year-on-year, including quick-frozen jiaozi and quick-frozen steamed buns in quick-frozen foods, instant sausage, instant vermicelli, self-heating foods in convenience foods, and all categories under leisure snacks.

Further analysis based on the above performance:

All kinds of orders in quick-frozen food show uneven performance. Among them, quick-frozen dim sum once led a lot of categories in the year-on-year growth rate of market share in 2024Q4, and it also led this quarter, and the quick-frozen glutinous rice balls performed well. Compared with quick-frozen jiaozi and quick-frozen steamed buns, the year-on-year growth rate was negative, which further confirmed the changes of consumers’ consumption scenes of quick-frozen food and their roles in household consumption.

Dairy products have ushered in a long-lost market share of all key categories, with a positive year-on-year growth rate. Among them, adult milk powder is still the leader. Comparatively speaking, although the market share growth rate of pure milk and yogurt is positive year-on-year, its growth rate is very small. On the other hand, after a period of "difficult period", dairy products seem to be welcoming their own "turning point", which may also bring trend changes to the subsequent development of the category, which deserves continuous attention;

Convenience foods are showing a trend of differentiation. Among them, the market share of instant noodles is still increasing year-on-year, while the market share of fast-food sausage and convenience fans is decreasing slightly year-on-year. It is noteworthy that this type of product has been in a "stall" state since the outbreak of hot food. From the situation this quarter, this stall has not improved.

Finally, the category of leisure snacks, all sub-categories under the category of leisure snacks showed a year-on-year decline in market share. On the one hand, the differentiation of demand in snack discount, independent stores and online has led to a great impact on the sales of leisure snacks in the traditional five formats; On the other hand, leisure snacks are always in a slightly embarrassing position in today’s healthy wave, which may be one of the reasons why consumers are less and less important in the overall food consumption;

(3) Year-on-year comparison of 3)2025Q1/2024Q1-beverage category

In the first quarter of each year, because it is in the low season of the traditional beverage industry, and it contains the important festival of the Spring Festival, there are many differences between the beverage categories and the overall situation of the whole year. At the same time, in 2025Q1, the key categories in the beverage market also showed some changes.

It can be seen that the categories of beverages with negative year-on-year market share growth rate are milk-containing beverages, vegetable protein beverages, instant milk tea and instant coffee. In the past, these categories performed well in winter or had strong attributes of holiday gifts, but their performance this year was not optimistic. At the same time, sports drinks, plant drinks, ready-to-drink fruit juice, packaged water, ready-to-drink tea and soft drinks are the categories with positive year-on-year market share growth. These categories are more powerful in summer and have limited gift attributes, but their performances are remarkable.

This may also represent some trends in the development of the beverage market: on the one hand, the influence of seasons on consumers’ product selection in beverage categories may be gradually weakening, and products that relieve summer heat may also have a wide demand and market in the cold winter; On the other hand, the gift-giving nature of beverage categories may also be weakening. During the festive season, more beverage consumption scenes have changed from gifts from relatives and friends to party sharing, and the well-sold product categories have naturally changed from the past strong gift-giving categories to categories with more personal consumption. These changes may mean some trends in the development of the beverage market.

Based on the four categories of food, beverage, wine and daily chemical, and the performance of the typical categories listed above, we will further analyze the data from three latitudes: "people" with retail orders as the core, "goods" with commodities as the core, and "market" with business channels as the core.

2. "People": retail order dimension

In the observation of order dimension, based on the above-mentioned typical categories of food and beverage, we extracted all the consumer orders with these typical categories in all orders in the quarter, and extracted the dimension data such as order quantity, category sales and category sales.

(1) Year-on-year sales volume, sales volume and order quantity

In this quarter’s retail express, for the convenience of classified viewing and comparison, we also divided the three indicators of sales volume, number of pieces sold and number of orders into food category/beverage category for separate observation.

First of all, the food category, we can see that in all key categories, except for the number of frozen snacks sold/orders slightly positive, all other categories showed a decline. Combined with the above-mentioned year-on-year decline of -10% sales in the market, the overall situation of quick-frozen snacks, adult milk powder, quick-frozen glutinous rice balls and instant noodles is slightly better than that in the market.

The categories with poor performance are self-heating food, dried meat, quick-frozen steamed buns, puffed food, etc. Among them, the sales of self-heating food in 2025Q1 compared with 2024Q1, the number of sales under continuous stores decreased by 35%, the number of sales decreased by 32.5%, and the number of orders decreased by 27.5%. This figure is very exaggerated and it is also very serious for the category. After the epidemic, this category of products and related manufacturers will be in the end.

Compared with food, the highlight category of beverage category is more prominent. In terms of positive growth, the growth momentum of sports drinks and plant drinks is similar, with the year-on-year growth rate of sales exceeding 10%, and sports drinks have been growing continuously for many years since around 2022, which deserves continuous attention. The performance of ready-to-drink juice this quarter is also remarkable, which may be related to its increased penetration in festivals and other scenes. In the past two years, ready-to-drink juice has been continuously used in many ways, such as multi-specification, multi-combination, party scene marketing, and health concept marketing, so that more types of products appear on the dinner table shared by parties, and even replace the stable position of soda and vegetable protein drinks on the dinner table to some extent.

From the perspective of decline, the obvious decline is still in the categories of milk-containing drinks, vegetable protein drinks, ready-to-drink milk tea and ready-to-drink coffee. Among them, the instant milk tea/ready-to-drink coffee immediately won a special study in mid-March (looking forward to 2025, ready-to-drink coffee/ready-to-drink milk tea: why do bottled products "fall behind"? ), vegetable protein drinks and milk-containing drinks are more traditional categories, lacking innovation and product-based growth momentum, making it difficult for scenes and people to expand continuously, or these traditional categories are "headaches".

There is also instant tea that needs special attention in this quarter. Before the summer of 2025, the sales volume, the number of pieces sold and the number of orders for ready-to-drink tea were all negative year-on-year, and the decline of the number of pieces sold > the number of orders > the sales volume, which is not a good signal for the category that grew rapidly last year, and needs continuous attention.

(2) Average cost per order and year-on-year change

The average cost per order can reflect the average shopping budget of consumers in this category, and the change of this value can also reflect the change of consumer price expectation and consumption expectation of this category (more emphasis is placed on describing the price expectation of consumers in this category).

Judging from the year-on-year changes in the average spending per order of various items in this quarter, compared with 2024Q4, the average spending is at a high level in both 2024Q1 and 2025Q1, and the main influencing factor may come from the impact of the Spring Festival on consumer demand and shopping budget.

From the perspective of various purposes, only the average expenditure of adult milk powder, ready-to-drink juice, instant noodles, ready-to-drink tea and packaged water has increased slightly, while most of the other categories have shown a year-on-year decline, which also echoes the price index of food and beverage that has been seen before for a long time below 100. The lower the price level, the shrinking the consumer’s shopping budget in the category and the corresponding degradation of the supply side. At present, this vicious circle may still exist.

Judging from the year-on-year decline, most snack categories have shrunk to a certain extent under the condition that the absolute value of the average cost per order is not high. In the past one or two years, with the popularity of white-brand products represented by snack discount format and the low concentration of most snack categories, leisure snack categories have become the "hardest hit" for price pressure transmission.

Another thing that deserves attention is pure milk and self-heating food at the tail. Combined with the changes of market share, sales volume and order quantity of these two categories, it seems that pure milk has got some positive feedback in the process of exchanging price for quantity, and the scale has been kept from falling with a part of price decline; Self-heating food category is not optimistic, even if the average cost per order has dropped by about 10%, the share, sales volume and order quantity still decline seriously.

(3) Average number of purchased pieces per order and year-on-year change

The average number of purchases per order can reflect the average single purchase of consumers in this category, and the change of this value can reflect the change of consumer’s consumption expectation and consumption price elasticity (more emphasis is placed on describing the change of consumer’s consumption in this category).

Similar to the year-on-year average cost per order, the average number of items purchased per order in 2024Q1/2025Q1 is also higher than that in 2024Q4, but the difference between Q1 and Q4 is not as big as the average cost per order. This may also reflect that between "spending more money" and "buying more goods", festivals have a greater impact on the former than the latter.

Judging from the situation of various items in the quarter, only three categories of adult milk powder, plant drinks and quick-frozen snacks showed a positive increase in the average number of items purchased per order, but the growth rate was almost negligible, while the other categories showed a decline as a whole.

Among the key categories, the vegetable protein beverage dropped the most. The traditional strong festival mental category in this beverage category dropped by about 10% in the average number of purchases per order. Perhaps its mind is being challenged in both the Spring Festival gift and the winter hot drink scene. Under the background that the festival beverage market is changing from "gift" to "gathering and sharing", vegetable protein drinks seem to be a little behind in terms of product types, specifications or combination methods, and many consumers’ minds about this kind of products even remain on the traditional concept of "iron cans are heated"; On the other hand, under the tide of beverage health, although the plant protein beverage is backed by the word protein, its deep cultivation in the concept of health is limited as a whole. In recent years, the only "oat milk" that has made achievements has gradually turned to the TO B channel because of the mediocre market feedback, and the concept of product health in the category may have greater room for upgrading in the future.

3. "Goods": Top SKU and category new product dimension

In the observation of "goods" with goods as the core, based on the typical categories of food and beverage mentioned above, we have drawn the market share of these categories in this quarter, the changes compared with last year, and the new products of these categories.

(1) TOP SKU of various projects and same/quarter-on-quarter changes

The first is the TOP SKU. In the following table, the TOP SKU is the category of 2025Q1, which is 2024Q1 year-on-year and 2024Q4 quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of the same/chain-on-chain change, "-"means that the SKU is ranked in the same time period as the previous one, "new" means that the SKU was listed for the first time in the same/chain-on-chain last quarter (does not mean that it is a new product), "↑" means that the SKU is ranked higher in this quarter, and "↓" means that the SKU is ranked lower in this quarter.

In the change of Top SKU this season, several changes are worthy of attention:

Instant noodles: the ranking of white elephant big spicy turkey noodles was further improved. Turkey noodle, a type of instant noodle product, was pioneered by South Korea Sanyang, but it was quickly promoted by white elephants in the local area and accepted by consumers. It is also a typical case of "combination of Chinese and Western" in the food industry. Win Now will carry out special research on Sanyang and White Elephant around the product category of turkey noodles in April, so please pay attention;

Nut roasted seeds and nuts: Because Q1 includes the Spring Festival, the TOP SKU of nut roasted seeds and nuts category is almost occupied by gift box products, among which three squirrels and three gift box products are on the list, with a rapid momentum.

In several categories of the whole quick-frozen food (quick-frozen jiaozi, glutinous rice balls, steamed stuffed buns and dim sum), all TOP SKU belong to Sanquan, Anjing and Missing only, and the head group of the category has a very strong control over the category.

Plant beverage: The performance of Yuanqi Forest from Red Bean Coix Seed Water/Jujube Lycium Juice has been further improved, ranking first and second in this quarter’s TOP5 SKU. Relatively speaking, the old rival Ipoh’s Zhiben Qingrun Chrysanthemum Tea series products have all declined in the ranking. (The fifth category to be supplemented)

(2) The quantity and share of new products changed year on year.

In this new category, we will observe the innovation activity and new product growth from two dimensions: the number of new products on the market and the market share of new products. The definition of "new product" by instant win brand CT is the new product information and bar code that was first registered in the offline retail monitoring network of instant win in this quarter.

Through the number of new products on the market, the market share growth of new products in the past and the share of new products in the current season, we can clearly understand the innovation and new product acceptance of various projects.

In terms of the number of new products, the number of new products listed in all categories showed a significant year-on-year decline. The categories that have increased in decline are western-style cakes, sweets, biscuits, dried meat, instant fruit juice, puffed food, etc. Among them, leisure snacks account for the vast majority of the categories with a large decline, and the number of new products in some categories has even dropped by more than 50% year-on-year, which is a real reduction in the number of new products.

Looking back at the number of new products in key categories in the quick reports of previous quarters, we find that the number of new products in most categories has been declining, and the reasons may be more critical:

?Oversupply and involution:Today, most food and beverage categories are already in the environment of complete market competition, and the related supply chain and product research and development are no longer barriers. Compared with a new product, it is a more difficult challenge to really support a new product, which also objectively creates the competitive situation of "thousands of troops crossing the wooden bridge". However, looking at this cycle in reverse, the overcrowded track and the low success probability of new products make brands/manufacturers not willing to promote new products, so it is difficult for the number of new products to grow rapidly.

?Industry dividends subsided:During the period from 2017 to 2022, innovations in consumer goods and new products based on raw materials, concepts and even brands and marketing did emerge one after another. However, with the decline of dividends and the slowdown of consumption upgrading, the scale competition and channel barriers of consumer goods made the new products face a rather unequal competitive environment when facing the old products. When the tide faded, this disadvantage became more obvious and insurmountable.

?SKU reduction and "head" strategy;In the retail market in 2024, adjustment and reform are undoubtedly the key words. All adjustment and reform directions are inseparable from the core strategy of "reducing the number of SKUs and increasing the proportion of head SKUs". Under this background, especially for categories with high concentration, the shelf space that channels can give new products is facing further compression, which leads to the continuous reduction of the number of new products listed.

The reduction of the number of new products on the market is inextricably linked with the survival and development performance of new products in the category, and the two sides are mutually causal and influential. Judging from the market share of new products in several quarters, biscuits, western-style cakes and other categories, as well as nuts, roasted seeds and nuts, plant drinks and other categories, have shown better survival performance of new products.

On the contrary, in several categories with high concentration and strong head brands, such as packaged water, pure milk, soft drinks, etc., whether it is the new products in Q1 and Q4 last year or the new products in this quarter, their living conditions are worrying and they are facing greater competitive pressure.

4. "Field": the dimension of format and city level.

In the part of "market", we go back to the categories of food, beverage, wine and daily chemical, and observe the year-on-year performance of various formats and cities under the collection of large categories.

(1) City-wide grade and year-on-year situation of each format.

The CT offline retail monitoring network of instant win brand collects and analyzes data based on five formats: hypermarkets, supermarkets, small supermarkets, convenience stores and grocery stores. We also extract the sales, order volume and average order cost of these five typical offline retail formats in this quarter and the previous quarter.

In this quarter, no matter the sales volume, the number of orders or the average cost per order, all formats showed a relatively obvious year-on-year decline.

Compared with the year-on-year comparison in 2024Q4/2023Q4, the year-on-year decline in sales of all formats shows some signs of increase, which may be related to the fact that the business scale of Spring Festival is higher than other quarters, which objectively magnifies this year-on-year change.

From the perspective of different formats, the year-on-year decline in the number of orders in big formats such as supermarkets/supermarkets has narrowed to be basically the same as last year, with a year-on-year decline of less than 3%. However, from the perspective of average cost per order, the year-on-year decline in the average cost per order of more than 7% has caused a greater drag. From the point of view of small supermarkets, convenience stores, grocery stores and other small formats, the drag of order quantity on sales year-on-year is greater than the impact of the decline in average cost per order. The number of orders has decreased by more than 5% year-on-year, and the largest grocery store has reached 11%, while the average cost per order has decreased by less than 5%.

(2) Full format, year-on-year situation of each city level.

The offline retail monitoring network of instant win brand CT covers cities at or above the county level (excluding townships, towns and villages) and deeply covers the core urban agglomerations in China. We pulled the relevant data of 2025Q1 of each city level and observed the year-on-year situation.

Similar to the business situation, in this quarter, from the first-tier cities to the third-tier cities and below, regardless of the sales volume, the number of orders or the average cost per order, all cities showed a relatively obvious year-on-year decline.

In terms of city level, from first-tier cities to third-tier cities and below, the year-on-year decline in sales is negatively correlated with the year-on-year decline in city level, that is, the higher the city level, the more obvious the decline; On the contrary, the lower the city level, the less the decline. Under the pressure of economic growth, consumers in first-tier cities are indeed facing greater pressure and more uncertain future expectations, which is also reflected in the basic consumption of food and beverage in the retail market. In the year-on-year average cost per order, the year-on-year decline of first-tier cities is also significantly higher than that of other cities, or it is closely related to the mentioned factors.

Unlike sales and average cost per order, which more represent consumers’ shopping budget and price mentality, the number of orders can more reflect the changes in population and consumer behavior and channel selection. It can be seen that the year-on-year decline of new first-tier cities is significantly higher than that of other cities. Comparatively speaking, consumers in second-tier cities, third-tier cities and the following two cities have smaller year-on-year changes.

　　CCTV News:In the first quarter of this year, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade reached 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The import and export of foreign trade improved month by month and achieved a good start. The accumulated new advantages and the sustained growth of new kinetic energy have also made the foreign trade industry draw more surprising trajectories.

　　Starting today (April 20th), we will launch a series of reports on "New Routes of Foreign Trade", so as to follow the pace of foreign trade, embark on "new routes" and explore more possibilities along new directions. Today, first of all, focus on the "new three" products with outstanding export performance: electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells in new energy vehicles.

　　At noon, at the Haitong Wharf outside Shanghai, a car ro-ro ship slowly berthed, and one new energy vehicle sailed on board one after another, which was about to be sent to Thailand.

　　Zhong Xiaogang, head of customs affairs at BYD:There are two deliveries this week, and tomorrow we will also send 900 cars from here to Australia.

　　CCTV reporter lin li:This is a car yard about two kilometers away from the dock, and most of the exported cars will come here three to five days in advance. Just now, the staff made a simple calculation for me. At present, there are more than 10,000 cars waiting for export every day, of which about 40% are new energy vehicles.

　　Xie Xiaoqing, Director of SAIC International Purchasing Department:The growth rate of new energy (export) is still relatively large. In 2022, the proportion of new energy should be around 16%, and it may increase to nearly 25% in 2023.

　　Also hot is the export of lithium batteries. In a battery enterprise in Taizhou, Jiangsu Province, a batch of lithium batteries are being packaged and will be sent to South Africa soon. The person in charge of the enterprise told the reporter that this year, overseas customers’ demand for household energy storage has further increased, so they have added a production line for lithium batteries.

　　Wang Shuai, Manager of Delivery Department of Lithium Battery Product Line of Shuangdeng Group Co., Ltd.:This year, our household energy storage output has gradually reached expectations, and the output has increased by more than 60% compared with the same period last year.

　　It is understood that clothing, furniture and household appliances were once called the "old three" in the foreign trade industry to promote export growth; Nowadays, while the "old three kinds" industries are constantly upgrading, the "new three kinds" have also sprung up: electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells in new energy vehicles have further enhanced the driving force for exports. According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the total export of "new three products" increased by 66.9%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100 billion yuan, which increased the overall export growth rate by 2 percentage points.

　　Li Jirong, Deputy Director of Statistics and Analysis Department of Shanghai Customs:Our country has also made good use of the advantage that the traditional manufacturing industry chain is relatively close and the supporting facilities are relatively complete, and has quickly achieved very good advantages in the new three industries. In the first quarter of this year, the export of electric manned vehicles in Shanghai more than doubled year-on-year, the export of lithium-ion batteries increased by more than 200%, and the export of solar batteries also increased by 57%.

Writing is the foundation of civilization and an important symbol of human civilization. Chinese characters are the most important carrier to record and inherit Chinese culture, and they are the cultural ties to build the Chinese nation’s sense of community, which invisibly influences and shapes the Chinese nation’s ideas.

Chinese characters record Chinese culture.

Characters are symbols of recording languages. Oracle Bone Inscriptions, the Shang Dynasty, is the earliest systematic and mature script in China, and has been able to record Chinese completely. As an original script, before Oracle Bone Inscriptions, Chinese characters had a long development process. Academic circles have been concerned about the formation and development of Chinese characters. When did Chinese characters finally form a system that can completely record the language? Meng Weizhi thought it was early summer, while Qiu Xigui thought it was the time of Xia and Shang Dynasties. The theory of "one series of three generations of characters" should be credible. Huang Dekuan once advocated that the characters in the late Shang Dynasty should be taken as a reliable starting point, and traced back to the early period, so as to make a reasonable speculation on the whole Chinese characters in the Shang Dynasty. This change from known to unknown is indeed a possible path to explore the formation and development of early Chinese characters.

The formation and development of Chinese characters are of great significance and must be explored in depth. According to the literature, "Cang Xie wrote a book, but it rained heavily, and ghosts cried at night" ("Huai Nan Zi Ben Jing Xun"). As for whether Cang Xie, the historian of the Yellow Emperor, created Chinese characters, we don’t need to delve into it, but the emergence of Chinese characters is indeed an earth-shattering and weeping feat. Chinese characters are super-epochal, which can cross the time barrier, record the long history of the Chinese nation and bear the civilization of the Chinese nation for 5,000 years. Chinese characters are super-regional, which can cross spatial boundaries and maintain information communication in different dialect areas of ethnic families, and people living in different regions can communicate smoothly.

"Thousands of years in ancient and modern times, tens of thousands of miles." Chinese characters break through the limitation of time and space and completely record and inherit Chinese culture. In front of countless Chinese sons and daughters, she is undoubtedly a long bond, firmly casting the Chinese nation community.

Chinese characters contain cultural mysteries.

"Every painting is learned." Observing each Chinese character statically, its glyph itself accumulates the profound mystery of Chinese culture. "The single body is a text, and the combination is a word." "Wen" is a single character, and the glyph itself cannot be divided; "Zi" is a combined character, and the glyph can be subdivided. Therefore, the word "Wen" can only be said, but the word "Zi" can be interpreted, and the name "Shuo Wen Jie Zi" is sincere. Xu Shen, known as "the ancestor of literate Sect", has long understood the mystery of "writing".

The older the Chinese characters, especially the pre-Qin characters such as Oracle Bone Inscriptions and Jinwen, the stronger their pictographic or ideographic elements, so they contain more cultural information of the word-making era. For example, the word "rainbow" of a rainbow is shaped like a [~ symbol ~] in Oracle Bone Inscriptions, which looks like two big worms winding down before and after. This is in line with the legend that the rainbow has two songs and can drink the water from rivers. It is recorded in Oracle Bone Inscriptions that "a rainbow comes from the north and drinks in the river" (Oracle Bone Inscriptions Collection 10405), to the effect that a rainbow comes out from the north and drinks in the river. The ancients could not give a scientific explanation for the natural phenomenon of rainbow in the sky, so they imagined it as a bug drinking water in a river. Later, the glyph evolved into a combined Chinese character. In Shuowen, it is a knowing word from insects to Shen (electricity), but most of the time it is a knowing word from insects, that is, the "rainbow" that is still in use today. However, in the silk script, there was once a glyph from the sound of rain workers. No matter from "Shen (electricity)" or "rain", it shows that the ancients have realized the relationship between rainbow and rain.

In fact, every Chinese character is a vivid existence of China culture. Through the typical Chinese character configuration related to human body, animals and plants, we can perceive the colorful world; Through the typical Chinese character configuration related to clothing, diet and living room, we can understand people’s basic necessities of life. Through the typical Chinese character configurations related to sacrifice, war and marriage, we can know people’s manners and customs. Through the typical Chinese character configuration related to national territory, land and clan, we can feel the feelings of Chinese sons and daughters about home and country.

The evolution of Chinese characters witnessed the cultural inheritance.

It is even more magical to observe Chinese characters dynamically. In the era of Oracle Bone Inscriptions, Chinese characters have entered a mature stage. Then, it went through bronze inscriptions, bamboo slips and silk books, seal characters and currency characters. From seal script to official script, from official script to official script, until today, simplified Chinese characters have been followed for thousands of years. In the meantime, although the form of Chinese characters has been constantly changing, its basic system has always been maintained, and its evolution can be clearly found.

Most of Oracle Bone Inscriptions in Shang Dynasty carved with a knife, and a few wrote with a brush. It is time-consuming and laborious to carve words on Oracle bones, so it is necessary to change the circle into a square, to fill in the outline, and to change the thick pen into a fine pen. The difference between writing carrier and tools will have a great influence on the font. In order to facilitate writing communication, Oracle Bone Inscriptions has been simplified. During the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, the characters were abnormal, the vulgar style was popular, and the simplification was prominent, which was a reflection of the great changes in economy, politics and culture at that time. The change of seal script into official script is the most important change in the evolution of Chinese characters. It makes Chinese characters change from characters that need to be drawn with the body into simple characters composed of straight strokes, which greatly improves the writing speed and contributes to cultural communication.

Chinese character recording language contains culture, and each glyph has its own times. "One word is a cultural history." Rich cultural connotation indicates that every Chinese character is a treasure that needs our efforts to develop. Strengthening the interpretation of Chinese characters, digging deep into the historical, ideological and cultural connotation behind Chinese characters, and refining and displaying the essence of Chinese excellent traditional culture are not only the inevitable requirements for inheriting and developing Chinese excellent traditional culture, but also the proper meaning for enhancing the vitality and influence of Chinese culture. (Author: Qi Hangfu, deputy director of Chinese Character Civilization Center of Zhengzhou University)

This issue of the "Precision Frontier" column shared by Zhao Haitao’s research team published inGenome Medicine(IF =11.12) [1], a mutation signature was constructed and verified to predict the prognosis of patients receiving immunotherapy, and the potential immune response of different subtypes was studied by using multidimensional data.

Research background

Immunocheckpoint inhibitors (ICI) have changed the treatment of many cancers. However, the beneficiaries of ICI treatment are limited, so it is necessary to screen and predict biomarkers to classify patients. At present, many biomarkers, such as tumor mutation load (TMB), have been used as indicative biomarkers in clinic. However, some high TMB patients with gene mutation related to immunotherapy resistance are not sensitive to ICI treatment. Therefore, it is necessary to go beyond TMB and identify the specific genetic determinants of ICI treatment response.

research design

The study included genome and clinical data of 12,647 patients. There were 1572 cases in the training set (immunotherapy patients with 9 kinds of cancer) and 932 cases in the verification set (immunotherapy patients with 5 kinds of cancer). The training set was sequenced by MSK-IMPACT panel containing 468 genes.

The authors identified a set of 11 genes based on mutation, which can divide patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The mutation of these 11 genes is related to the better response to ICI treatment, and this gene set has been proved to be an independent prognostic factor after ICI treatment.

research results

1. Identify mutant gene sets that can predict the outcome of immunotherapy.

Firstly, the survival differences of 468 genes in the training set were compared between wild type and mutant type, and 98 genes related to OS (global survival) were obtained. After that, LASSO COX regression analysis was further screened and 11 important genes were finally obtained. Through COX regression analysis, the risk score of each patient was quantified on the basis of 11 mutant gene sets. In the training concentration, the OS of patients in the high-risk group is shorter than that of patients in the low-risk group (Figure 1B). In order to study whether the gene set is limited to a specific population or suitable for different populations, the subgroup analysis regardless of age, drug use type and cancer species shows that the gene set is significantly related to the OS of patients treated with ICI (Figure 1C-E).

Figure 1. Generation and Verification of Gene Set Based on Mutation

2. Verification of predictable immunotherapy results

In order to further confirm the value of mutation-based gene set in predicting the results of immunotherapy, it was found that the OS of low-risk group was higher than that of high-risk group (Figure 1F). The research results of predicting ICI treatment response in gene set show that the DCB(durable clinical benefit) of ICI treatment in low-risk group is significantly increased compared with that in high-risk group (Figure 1G), and low-risk patients are more likely to respond to ICI treatment (Figure 1H). These results get the same results in the verification set (Figure 1I, J).

3. Gene set is an independent prognostic predictor of immunotherapy.

Next, the author verifies whether the gene set based on mutation is an independent predictor of immunotherapy response. In the training and validation set, univariate COX regression analysis showed that the gene set was related to OS. After adjusting for drug type, tumor type and TMB, multivariate COX regression analysis showed that the gene set was still an independent predictor, which confirmed the stability of its independent prediction of ICI prognosis (Figure 2A, B). In order to determine which factor has the best predictive performance, C-index is used to compare the performance of mutation-based gene sets with TMB and drug types. The results of C-index show that the gene set based on mutation can predict the prognosis more accurately than TMB and drug type in both training set and validation set (Figure 2C, D).

Fig. 2. Relationship between mutation-based gene sets and other characteristics

4. The clinical benefit of ICI treatment can be predicted based on the mutant gene set, disease stage, CTL and 6-IFN-g gene signature.

Considering the stage of disease, CTL and 6-gene IFN-g signature have been proved to be highly predictive of the response to ICI treatment, the authors speculate that they may play a synergistic role in predicting the response to immunotherapy. The author combined the gene set based on mutation with disease stage, CTL and 6-gene IFN-g signature through Nomotograph, and provided a method for clinicians to quantitatively predict the OS of patients treated by ICI. Fig. 2E is the nomogram of Riaz cohort construction, and the calibration curve of fig. 2F shows the consistency of actual and predicted results, indicating that these signature should be integrated into the predicted nomogram of ICI treatment.

5. Potential external immune landscape of high and low risk groups

In order to further explore the relationship between immune system and mutation-based gene set, the authors conducted a multi-group analysis of TCGA cohort, and the risk score divided TCGA cohort into high and low risk groups (Figure 3A). At the genome level, the proportion of white blood cells, lymphocytes and TIL in the low-risk group was significantly higher than that in the high-risk group (Figure 3B-D). The H&E staining results of TIL ratio are consistent with the above results (Figure 3E). In addition, the proportion of immunostimulatory cells (such as CD8 T cells) in the low-risk group is also significantly higher than that in the high-risk group (Figure 3F). The above results were further tested by Danaher et al.’ s immune infiltration score (figure 3G) and immune characteristic score (figure 3H), and it was found that the abundance of immune cells in low-risk group was higher. Then unsupervised clustering was used to cluster the immune characteristic scores of patients in TCGA cohort, and the results were clustered into two immune infiltration modes (Figure 3I), and the high immune infiltration was significantly enriched in the low-risk group (Figure 3J).

Fig. 3. Immune status of high and low risk population in TCGA cohort.

In addition, the immune signature in the low-risk group was significantly higher than that in the adjacent cancer tissue; On the contrary, the immune signature in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the adjacent tissues (Figure 4A). The correlation of immune activity in low-risk group was significantly higher than that in high-risk group (Figure 4B, C). GSEA results showed that 13 pathways were significantly enriched in the low-risk group, including 6 immune-related pathways, such as "cytotoxicity mediated by natural killer cells" (Figure 4D). Tumors in the low-risk group are associated with significantly higher CYT scores, and the number of fibroblasts in the high-risk group is now increasing (Figure 4E, F). According to these results, the low-risk group is rich in immune cells, which can respond to ICI treatment, and fibroblasts may help the high-risk group escape. The expression of chemokines in the low-risk group is higher (Figure 4G, H), so the author speculates that the enrichment of chemokines in the low-risk group may trigger an immune response.

Figure 4. Potential external immune landscape of high and low risk groups　

6. Potential inherent immune landscape of high and low risk groups

Some potential factors determining tumor immunogenicity between the two groups were compared. Mutation, new antigen load, TCR and BCR diversity in low-risk group were significantly higher than those in high-risk group, but CNV load and aneuploidy in high-risk group were higher than those in low-risk group (Figure 5A). This result is consistent with previous studies, that is, tumor aneuploidy is related to immunotherapy and decreased immune escape marker response. In addition, the heterogeneity of tumor in high-risk group is higher than that in low-risk group, which further supports the view that tumor will promote the development of heterogeneity in the presence of cytolytic activity and less active infiltration of immune cells. In order to further understand the mutation process of high and low risk groups, the mutation characteristics were described according to somatic mutation data, and four different mutation patterns were determined in TCGA cohort (Figure 5B). The frequency of these four mutation signals in the low-risk group is significantly higher than that in the high-risk group (Figure 5C). In addition, it was also found that immune checkpoint molecules (such as PD-1, PD-L1 and CTLA4) and costimulatory molecules were more highly expressed in the low-risk group (Figure 5E).

Figure 5. Potential innate immune response and escape landscape in high and low risk groups.　

7. Copy number characteristics of high and low risk groups

Significant differences in chromosome variation were detected in high and low risk groups (fig. 6A). Local amplification peaks of immune genes with good characteristics, such as PD-L1 (9p24.1) and PD-L2 (9p24.1), were observed in the low-risk group (fig. 6B, C). GO function annotation of the specifically amplified genes showed that the low-risk group was significantly enriched in two immune-related biological processes, while the high-risk group was significantly enriched in the biological process of "positive regulation of fibroblast proliferation", but not in any immune-related biological processes (Figure 6E). At the level of mRNA expression in TCGA cohort, the expression of PD-L1 and PD-L2 mRNA in low-risk group increased significantly (Figure 6G), which was consistent with CNV data. This finding suggests that CNVs in tumor contributes to the observed difference in immune infiltration.

Figure 6. Variation of copy number in high and low risk groups

discuss

This study is the first time to use an independent cohort to study the comprehensive mutant gene sets of different tumor types. Through PSM algorithm, hierarchical analysis and multivariate COX regression analysis, the application performance of mutation-based gene sets in different types of tumors was tested, and the results showed that mutation-based gene sets were reliable.

This study has the following innovation and practical application value. First, different types of tumors (such as NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer), melanoma and renal cell carcinoma) are used, which represent the most common types of cancer treated with ICI. Secondly, the application of multiple biomarker prediction model needs to understand the factors that affect the accuracy and precision of Qualcomm analysis in clinical practice. The risk score formula and threshold of mRNA expression calculation are not suitable for verification with other types of data. Therefore, this study developed a gene set based on mutation to predict the clinical efficacy of ICI treatment. The composition of the above mutations is neither affected by tissue types nor adjusted by any other biomarkers. The risk score formula and threshold of gene set based on mutation can be verified by other tumor analysis methods, such as DNA sequencing and single nucleotide polymorphism microarray analysis. Therefore, mutation-based gene sets are not affected by technological changes, even when different platforms are used in different centers. Thirdly, in practice, gene sets based on mutations avoid exposing patients to potential immune-related adverse reactions when they are unlikely to respond, and enable patients to match to potentially more effective treatments more quickly. Fourthly, the prediction performance of gene set based on mutation is compared with other factors that can predict immunotherapy, and it is found that the prediction performance of gene set based on mutation is better than all these factors.

Several limitations of this study. First of all, because some mutations may be enriched in some tumor types, the initial goal of this study is to create a panel instead of identifying a single gene (such as BRAF), because the former can contain more genes to predict the prognosis of different types of tumors. Secondly, although the immune landscape of 11 genes in the gene set based on mutation has been explored, it is still necessary to clarify the molecular mechanism of each gene affecting immunotherapy in vivo and in vitro functional experiments. Thirdly, the enrichment scores of carcinogenic pathways and the expression patterns of immune checkpoints should also be detected by immunohistochemistry.

tag

The mutation-based gene set proposed in this study is the first comprehensive genomic marker systematically identified, which can be used to evaluate the ICI treatment effect of pan-cancer species. This study is also the largest prognostic model discovery project for cancer patients receiving ICI treatment (whether single drug treatment or combined treatment of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4). Nomoto, which combines mutation-based gene set with TMB and drug types, can help clinicians choose patients who may have a strong response to ICI treatment. In addition, it also reveals the different immune conditions of high and low risk groups, and specific genomic changes may drive the formation of these microenvironments. In a word, this work puts forward a new tumor classification method, which may guide the decision-making of ICI treatment.　END　

References:

[1]　Long, J., Wang, D., Wang, A. et al. A mutation-based gene set predicts survival benefit after immunotherapy across multiple cancers and reveals the immune response landscape. G enome Med 14, 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13073-022-01024-y

Write Liu Hua Hua

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