The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,200 points, the biggest one-day drop in half a year.
The GEM index plunged 5.5%; According to the analysis, the main reasons are the efforts of the regulatory authorities, the expected interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the acceleration of IPO and the shortage of market funds.
The Beijing News (Reporter Jin Mi) is another "Black Monday", with placard concept stocks leading the decline in the two cities. Affected by this, at the close of December 12, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 2.47% and fell below 3,200 points, the biggest one-day drop in half a year. The previous biggest one-day drop was 3.21% on June 13th. At the same time, the growth enterprise market index plunged 5.5% to below 2000 points, hitting a new low of nearly seven months.
Excluding ST shares, nearly 180 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell. Among them, GEM stocks and sub-new shares staged a wave of down limit. The second new shares ushered in a sharp correction across the board. 26 stocks such as Longshen Rongfa, Heren Technology and Sanxiang New Materials have fallen.
According to the analysis, under the influence of the regulatory authorities, the insurance companies with aggressive investment were required to rectify, and the concept stocks of insurance funds fell sharply. CSG A approached the limit line, and Vanke A, Gree Electric and other stocks fell more than 6%. Among them, Vanke A’s share price approaches Evergrande’s shareholding cost line. In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, the IPO is speeding up, and the market funds are tight, which are also important factors for this plunge.
Regulatory power placard concept stocks fell sharply
Before this round of decline, A shares have been rebounding for several months. In a research report at the end of November, Guojin Securities pointed out that the core logic of this round of A-share market rebound is the placard of insurance funds, that is, the insurance funds are "willful" and greatly increase their holdings of A-shares, which makes the secondary market show a "net increase" situation.
Yesterday, Yang Delong, managing director and chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told the Beijing News reporter that the regulatory authorities had strengthened supervision over the placards of insurance funds, which caused market panic. However, the short-term adjustment of A shares will not change the upward trend of the mid-line, and the market callback will bring the best opportunity to get on the bus.
On December 3, Liu Shiyu, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, criticized "barbarians". Faced with the risks caused by the aggressive investment of individual insurance companies, the regulatory authorities have continuously offered heavy punches. Among them, Evergrande Life Insurance with high-profile brand Vanke and Qianhai Life Insurance with substantial increase in Gree Electric bear the brunt.
Following the suspension of Qianhai Life Insurance’s new universal insurance business, last Friday (December 9), the China Insurance Regulatory Commission suspended the stock investment business entrusted by Evergrande Life Insurance. At the same time, the CIRC will send inspection teams to Qianhai Life Insurance and Evergrande Life Insurance.
Yesterday, Xinhua News Agency published an article saying that the heavy-handed supervision is not to "kill" insurance funds into the market, but to take advantage of the situation and consolidate the hard-won positive situation of the whole industry by making individual "disobedient" insurance institutions "behave".
At the same time, Xinhua News Agency pointed out that more regulatory measures on the use of insurance funds will be introduced one after another, aiming at effectively curbing aggressive investment, preventing risks and promoting mutual benefit and win-win between insurance funds and capital markets.
There are still structural investment opportunities in the market outlook.
Then, the suppression of the placard of insurance funds led to the temporary flameout of the A-share rebound. Is there any investment opportunity for insurance funds since then? How does the market outlook develop?
"From the perspective of regulatory actions, the logic of insurance placards will be temporarily suspended." Zhu Bin, an analyst at Southwest Securities, said that it is not ruled out that the regulatory actions will be further tightened in the future, which will directly lead to the temporary shutdown of the main force driving the market upward.
According to industry insiders, the main sources of funds for placard insurance are universal insurance and structured leveraged products, and there are long-term and short-term mismatches and liquidity risks, which are the core and focus of future supervision. Regardless of whether the source of funds is reasonable or not, insurance funds will cooperate with the attitude of supervision, and it will be difficult to stage a placard market in the short term.
Guosen Securities said in the research report that the "double low" pattern is difficult to reverse in 2017. The stock market is likely to maintain a volatile market that matches the profit growth rate, and structural investment opportunities are still the main theme.
Changjiang securities believes that the medium-term trend of the market is optimistic and the short-term trend is in adjustment. The key event in the future is whether the guidelines for raising interest rates next year at the Federal Reserve’s meeting on interest rates on the 15th of this month exceed expectations.
In addition, some analysts believe that the recent acceleration of IPO issuance by the CSRC is equivalent to a disguised registration system and impacts the market. Near the end of the year, funds are tight. And the RMB continues to depreciate, which does not rule out the central bank’s initiative to take measures, causing currency tightening concerns.
[individual stock]
CSG and Vanke fell by 16.05% and 13.71% in six trading days.
On December 12th, CSG A and Vanke A, which were listed by Baoneng Department, fell by 9.28% and 6.25% respectively.
Prior to this, Vanke A was repeatedly advertised by Baoneng, which triggered the "Wanbao dispute" between the former senior management of Vanke and Baoneng. During this period, Vanke A’s share price rose all the way, from 13 yuan per share at the beginning of 2015 to 29 yuan per share in the near future.
And CSG A, after Baoneng’s placard, experienced a big exchange of blood at the top of the company, which once triggered a quarrel. During the high-level collective exchange of blood, CSG A’s share price rose from below 12 yuan to a high of 15.74 yuan per share.
On December 3rd, Liu Shiyu, Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, criticized the "barbaric takeover" in his public speech. On December 5th, Baoneng Department of Qianhai Life Insurance was suspended from developing new universal insurance business. At the same time, the CIRC will send inspection teams to Qianhai Life Insurance and Evergrande Life Insurance.
The above-mentioned suspended universal insurance is widely regarded by the market as the "ammunition depot" of funds behind Qianhai Life Insurance’s crazy placard this year.
Qi Shenghua’s bond prospectus released in June 2016 shows that the scale premium of its Qianhai Life Insurance in 2015 was 77.9 billion yuan, of which the premium from universal insurance was 59.8 billion yuan, accounting for 76.78%.
According to Wind data, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, Qianhai Life Insurance held 41 listed companies with a total market value of 28.5 billion yuan, of which the market value of universal insurance products was about 25 billion yuan, accounting for 87.7%. Some market participants pointed out that unless shareholders inject capital or other products can be quickly increased, the capital flow of Qianhai Life Insurance will be under pressure after the suspension of universal insurance business.
Yesterday, CSG A and Vanke A both opened sharply lower. According to the statistics of the Beijing News reporter, CSG A fell by 16.05% and Vanke A fell by 13.71% in the six trading days after the close on December 2. (Wei Xu)
-Sound
Dong Mingzhu: Reject barbarians.
Vanke A, Gree Electric and other listed stocks all belong to high-quality large-scale blue-chip stocks, but their shares are relatively scattered, which leads to the listing of insurance funds. Wang Shi even said that Vanke has become a Zhuang stock. In the face of the surge of insurance funds, high-quality blue-chip stocks with relatively scattered A-shares are in danger.
The announcement that Qianhai Life Insurance no longer increased its holdings and chose to quit temporarily lifted the crisis of Gree Electric being placarded. However, Dong Mingzhu, chairman of Gree Electric, said at the 2016 CCTV Financial Forum yesterday that it is a crime against the real economy to achieve personal wealth goals by means of capital. We want to reject barbarians, CSG A is a typical example, and China must engage in real economy if it wants to become a powerful country.
Huang Xiuhong, the chairman of Pengrun Holding Group, who is working to lay out a full financial license, thinks that it is a market behavior for insurance funds to raise cards.
Huang Xiuhong: Insurance placards are market behaviors.
In an interview with the Beijing News reporter, Huang Xiuhong said that from the market level, this is an act that conforms to market rules. It can’t be said who is right or wrong. For listed companies, more consideration should be given to how to enhance their own capabilities.
She suggested that whether it is a blue-chip listed company or a company that is starting a business, it is necessary to improve its ability to protect itself and protect the long-term development of enterprises. Only when the enterprise becomes bigger and stronger will there be no such thing as "shouting grievances".
She believes that most of the listed companies are enterprises with scattered shares, such as Minsheng Bank, which was initially listed by Anbang, and Vanke and Gree Electric recently. Therefore, in order to prevent being re-listed by barbarians, listed companies in the future should design their shares in combination with their overall strategy and market positioning. Pengrun Holdings, which is developed by "industry+finance", will not rule out listing in the future and will also consider the above factors. (Jin Yu)