Guangzhou’s first home loan interest rate broke through the lower limit of LPR, which affected the property market？

　　Guangzhou, a first-tier city that has performed quite actively in this round of property market regulation, once again led the launch of a new favorable new policy.

　　Recently, the lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the first home in Guangzhou has exceeded the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market, and dropped to LPR minus 10 basis points (BP). Therefore, Guangzhou has become the first first-tier city with the lower limit exceeding LPR. Following the first introduction of the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" in first-tier cities, Guangzhou continued to make efforts to adjust its real estate policy. How is the market response now?

　　First-tier cities, Guangzhou has successively adjusted its mortgage policy.

　　According to Guangzhou Daily, the latest policy in Guangzhou is: the minimum down payment ratio of the first commercial personal housing loan is not less than 30%, and the lower interest rate limit is LPR minus 10 basis points; The minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for two sets of housing is not less than 40%, and the lower limit of interest rate is LPR plus 30 basis points; There are 2 suites and more in Guangzhou, and the distribution is suspended.

　　The New Deal will be implemented from September 8, and if the online signing of the sales contract or real estate sales contract has been completed before September 8 (excluding September 8), it will be implemented according to the original regulations.

　　This policy is based on the Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing the Differentiated Housing Credit Policy issued by the People’s Bank of China and the State Financial Supervision and Administration on August 31st, which stipulates that the lower limit of the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first home and the second home should be unified at not less than 20% and 30%. In terms of interest rate, the lower limit of the interest rate policy for the first set of commercial personal housing loans is implemented according to the current regulations, that is, not less than the corresponding period LPR minus 20 basis points; The lower limit of the interest rate policy for two sets of commercial individual housing loans is adjusted to not less than the corresponding period LPR plus 20 basis points.

　　Market participants said that although the down payment ratio of the first home loan in Guangzhou has not been lowered to 20% expected by the market, it is still 30%. However, the minimum down payment ratio for the purchase of the second suite was reduced to 40%, exceeding market expectations. Previously, the down payment ratio in Guangzhou was 50% (ordinary commodity housing) or 70% (non-ordinary commodity housing).

　　"Compared with the policy before the adjustment, the down payment ratio of the adjusted second home loan has been significantly lowered. There is a house but no loan or the loan has been settled, and the down payment ratio has dropped by 20%; If you have a house but have not paid off the loan, the down payment ratio has dropped by 30%. At the same time, the loan interest rate has also dropped significantly compared with the previous LPR plus 60 basis points. " Chen Xueqiang, research director of Guangzhou Branch of the Central Finger Research Institute, explained.

　　"Lowering the down payment ratio and interest rate of the second home loan is mainly aimed at improving people who own a house in Guangzhou and have certain ability to pay, without passing ‘ Sell one, buy one ’ To replace it, it is also conducive to accelerating the release of the second suite to improve demand. " Chen Xueqiang believes that this is different from the previous policy of "recognizing houses and not recognizing loans". The implementation policy is mainly aimed at two sets of buyers, which greatly reduces the threshold and cost of buying houses.

　　At the end of August, the Guangzhou Municipal People’s Government issued the Notice on Optimizing the Criteria for Determining the Number of Housing Units in Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou, which was the first time that the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" landed in first-tier cities, and was considered to be building momentum for the Guangzhou property market.

　　Can "Combination Boxing" Help "Golden September and Silver 10"?

　　"On September 2 -3, the New Deal was just announced, but the weather was not very good, so the number of people who came to see the house on the spot did not increase obviously. Last weekend, it was steady and rising. However, there are obviously more online and telephone consultations, and most of them just need to change rooms, but the proportion of real transactions is not large, and the price increase has not been thought about. " A real estate agent in Guangzhou told reporters.

　　Ms. Huang, a citizen of Guangzhou, has just settled on a house recently. "Family and friends said that they felt that house prices would drop a little, and they were not in a hurry. But we just need to buy a house, and the children will go to school next year and buy a school district. " Ms. Huang said that the biggest feeling after buying a house is that school districts are still very popular, especially the good school districts in Yuexiu District and Haizhu District, which are not worried about selling at all.

　　But as a seller, Ms. Lin, a citizen of Guangzhou, is much more entangled. "We want to sell the present house and buy another one, which is to improve the replacement. The listing has been hung for half a year, and it has dropped by almost 200,000 yuan. It has not been sold yet. " Miss Lin said that some floors in her community are not particularly good owners, and they may directly reduce the price by 400,000 yuan and 500,000 yuan. When buyers see them, they also hope to buy good floors at this low price. Owners are not in a hurry if they don’t sell them, because everyone is still holding a wait-and-see attitude.

　　"Wait and see" and "no hurry" seem to be the common mentality of many Guangzhou buyers in recent days. According to the data monitoring of the Central Finger Research Institute, the transaction volume of new houses in Guangzhou has been declining for four consecutive months since April this year. In August 2023, the transaction volume of new houses was 504,000 ㎡, down by 0.6% month-on-month and 25.7% year-on-year. The current market transaction volume has been at a historical low level.

　　How much incentive can the continuous introduction of the New Deal bring to the Guangzhou property market?

　　Zhang Hongwei, founder of Mirror Consulting, believes that Guangzhou Zengcheng, Conghua, Huadu, Baiyun non-core area and other areas have a large inventory, which is basically the first set of areas that just need to buy a house. Property buyers in these areas will benefit from the preferential interest rate of the first suite in Guangzhou, which will help the property market in these areas to further digest the inventory.

　　"This is first of all conducive to the demand for changing houses, including ‘ Sell one, buy one ’ The demand, especially the demand for second suites, including buying houses for parents and children, as well as investment demand, conforms to the new situation in which the new housing market focuses on improvement and large-sized units. " Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said that small-sized houses and low-priced houses released by the demand for house exchange can also drive people who just need to enter the market, especially those who are eager to get on the bus, such as marriage, employment and having children.

　　"However, the year-end market repair brought about by this favorable policy and the impulse response may weaken at the end of the year or even in November. Whether the property market can stabilize in the future depends on the fundamental repair situation. " Li Yujia believes.

　　Chen Xueqiang believes that with the implementation of Guangzhou’s first house "recognizing the house but not the loan" and the sharp reduction of the down payment ratio and interest rate of the second house, the confidence of the property market will be obviously boosted in the short term, and at the same time, the pace of entering the market will be accelerated for the rigidity of benefiting and improving the crowd. At the next "Golden September and Silver 10" node, developers will also use the policy window period to speed up the pace of pushing goods, and Guangzhou’s property market "Golden September and Silver 10" is expected. (Zuo Yukun)