Stable price operation and solid foundation

In November, CPI rose by 4.5% year-on-year.
Stable price operation and solid foundation

Core reading

In November, CPI rose by 4.5% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of last month. Food is the primary factor affecting this round of price increase. However, excluding the disturbance of the structural rise of some foods, the core CPI in November was 1.4%, which has been in a stable state. This reflects that the macroeconomic operation is relatively stable, the total supply and total demand are basically balanced, and the current price has no basis for an overall upward trend.

According to the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Ex-factory Price Index) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 10th, the CPI rose by 4.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month.

Why will the CPI increase continue to expand in November? What do you think of this 4.5%? The expected target of CPI in this year’s "Government Work Report" is "an increase of about 3%", so the increase of CPI in November will not affect the completion of the annual target? With these questions, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.

The structural rise of price operation is still outstanding.

From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 4.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 19.1%, affecting CPI by about 3.72 percentage points; Non-food prices rose by 1.0%, affecting CPI by about 0.77 percentage points. It can be seen that food is still the primary factor affecting this round of price increases.

Food prices have gone up and down, mainly fruits, while fresh vegetables and meat have gone up. In November, the price of fresh fruit continued to drop by 6.8% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 6.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The price of fresh vegetables decreased from last month to increase by 3.9%; The price of aquatic products rose by 2.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month; The price of pork rose by 110.2%, and the prices of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and eggs rose by 11.8%-25.7%.

Among non-food items, the prices of medical care, education, culture, entertainment and clothing rose by 2.0%, 1.7% and 1.1% respectively. Traffic and communication prices fell by 2.8%; Among them, the prices of gasoline and diesel decreased by 10.8% and 11.3% respectively. According to estimates, in the year-on-year increase of 4.5% in November, the impact of price changes last year was about 0, and the impact of new price increases was about 4.5 percentage points.

"At present, the structural rise of CPI is prominent, and the clear source of the rise is caused by pork. The impact of price increases is basically controllable, that is, related foods such as meat with consumption substitution. " Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Institute of Market and Price of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, analyzed that in November, the increase in the price of livestock meat contributed more than 70% to the increase in CPI.

At present, there is no basis for an overall upward trend in prices.

Guo Liyan introduced that year-on-year, excluding the disturbance of structural rise of some foods, the core CPI in November was 1.4%, which has been in a stable operation state.

"This shows that the CPI center is stable, reflecting that the macroeconomic operation is relatively stable, and the total supply and total demand are basically balanced. The main industrial consumer goods, service prices, housing prices and energy prices are basically in a stable or stable trend, and the current prices are not fully upward. basis." Guo Liyan said.

Judging from the recent trend, prices are also in a stable state. Non-food prices rose by 0.2% last month and turned flat. Affected by the changing seasons, clothing prices rose slightly by 0.5% in November. Travel in the off-season decreased, and the prices of air tickets, travel agency fees and hotel accommodation decreased by 11.0%, 4.4% and 3.8% respectively. Food prices rose by 1.8% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 1.8 percentage points, and many of them also fell.

Shen Yun, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that in November, a large number of fruits such as apples, oranges and pears were listed, and the price of fresh fruits decreased by 3.0% compared with the previous month; The supply of aquatic products is abundant, and the price dropped by 0.5% compared with last month; In winter, the production, storage and transportation costs of fresh vegetables increased, and the price rose by 1.4%; Affected by the peak consumption season and alternative demand, the prices of beef, mutton, chicken and duck increased by 1.3%-4.3%. The tight supply of pork has eased, and the price has increased by 3.8% month-on-month, with the growth rate dropping significantly by 16.3 percentage points.

"From the perspective of consumers’ feelings, the average price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities has gradually dropped from 34 yuan in early November to below 31 yuan at the end of the month, but the average price in the whole month is still significantly higher than that in October." Guo Liyan analyzed.

It is expected that there will be no problem in achieving the regulatory objectives throughout the year.

Food prices have risen significantly, and the feelings of ordinary people are the most direct. All localities quickly started the linkage mechanism of price subsidies according to national requirements. Since the beginning of this year, 30 provinces and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have distributed a total of 7.85 billion yuan of temporary price subsidies, benefiting 296 million people in need, and greatly alleviating the impact of rising food prices on the basic lives of people in need.

However, some people are worried that the expected target of CPI increase of around 3% this year can still be achieved?

Guo Liyan analyzed that the annual CPI is expected to remain at around 3%.

On the whole, China’s agricultural and industrial production is stable, the market supply is sufficient, and the total supply and total demand remain relatively balanced.

Looking at agriculture, the grain output has reached a new high. In 2019, China’s total grain output was 663.84 million tons, an increase of 5.94 million tons over 2018, a record high. The yield per unit area of cereals, beans and potatoes has all improved. At the same time of increasing grain income, apples, pears and other fruits have also been harvested, and the supply capacity of vegetables has continued to grow. Although the scale of pig slaughter has declined, the output of substitute meat such as chicken has increased significantly year-on-year, and the overall supply of meat protein is stable.

Looking at the industry, the product supply is very sufficient. China has a complete industrial production system, complete industrial categories and strong production capacity. In November, PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, which also proved that the production capacity is sufficient.

"From the perspective of the whole year, considering the economic operation and the direction of macro-control policies, China’s stable price operation has a solid foundation, and there is no basis for overall price increases." Guo Liyan said that China has sufficient policy space, strong domestic market support, confidence, confidence, ability and conditions to ensure the smooth operation of prices. "It is expected that the annual control target of about 3% increase in consumer prices will be successfully achieved throughout the year." (Reporter Lu Yanan)